Why do weekly UK business signal counts swing so much?

Weekly counts of UK public-record events swing a lot, and most swings are noise in filing and publishing patterns rather than changes in business activity. Between the weeks ending 29 September and 6 October 2026, new charges registered at Companies House fell from 8,177 to 2,473, and new sites fell from 102 to 10. Funding rounds rose from 67 to 198. Before you change your call list because of a number like these, check what the record measures and how it is dated.

Weekly counts, Lockley index

Three reasons counts move

The first is the date on the record. Lockley counts each event by the date on the record, not by the day it was seen. Filings can arrive in batches, and registers publish on their own schedules, so one week can hold a backlog and the next a gap. A fall from 8,177 charges to 2,473 is more likely to reflect that than a collapse in borrowing.

The second is size. Small counts move in large percentages. New sites fell from 102 to 10, which is a drop of about 90 per cent, but the count is small to begin with and planning registers update unevenly across councils. Contracts ending rose from 5 to 21, which is more than a fourfold increase, again from a small base.

The third is genuine seasonality. Contract end dates cluster around financial year ends and quarter ends, and hiring has its own calendar. Some movement is real, but you need several weeks of data to tell.

Where the counts are steadier

Larger counts are steadier. Director changes were 46,438 one week and 38,505 the next, a fall of about 17 per cent. Significant roles posted were 582 and then 640, a rise of about 10 per cent. First-of-function hires went from 154 to 142, a fall of about 8 per cent. For these you can reasonably say activity is broadly flat to modestly different.

Percentages here are calculated from the counts in the table.

What to do with this as a seller

Do not chase headline movements. Your call list is built from individual companies, not totals. A week in which only 10 new sites were recorded still contains 10 companies with a fresh reason to call, and a week of 2,473 charges still contains plenty you will never contact.

Use the totals for two jobs only. First, judge how much material you have to choose from: a signal with a count in the dozens gives you a short list, while one in the thousands needs a filter by sector, region or size. Second, spot very large changes that persist for three or four weeks, which are worth investigating.

Always open the underlying record. Lockley links each finding to the record it came from, so you can check the date and the detail before you pick up the phone.

Questions